Afghanistan: beginning of the end

David Cameron will today set out a hard-headed new approach to Afghanistan that will raise hopes that British troop numbers in the country will be reduced in little more than a year.

By James Kirkup and Thomas Harding, Daily Telegraph

The Prime Minister will tell MPs that the Government was trying to accelerate the process that will allow forces to start coming home.


Government insiders said Mr Cameron was keen to start winding down a war he inherited from Labour.

His Commons statement today comes after ministers removed Britain’s most senior military commander from his post amid frustrations at the way the war was being conducted. The early departure of Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff, allows Mr Cameron to choose a new chief to oversee his strategy.

Sir Jock’s early retirement later this year was announced yesterday by Dr Liam Fox, the Defence Secretary, who said it would allow ministers to put the “appropriate” commander into the top military post.

Sir Bill Jeffrey, the senior civil servant at the Ministry of Defence, will also step down.

Ministers are risking a row with Whitehall chiefs by considering replacing him with Bernard Gray, a procurement expert from outside the civil service. Jeremy Haywood, a senior Downing Street official, is also a contender.

The candidates to replace Sir Jock are Gen Sir David Richards, the head of the Army, and Gen Sir Nick Houghton, Sir Jock’s deputy. The successor will have a two-year term to oversee a shift in the approach to Afghanistan.

The new “national security-driven” approach includes:

* Increased Government efforts to persuade voters that the Afghan mission is succeeding and showing that Afghan government forces can secure the country.

* Lowering the criteria for success from a fully stable country to “some stability”.

* A clear commitment to a US-led review of the Afghan war that assumes troop withdrawals from next July.

Underlining the changing mood, Dr Fox said yesterday that ministers “don’t want to be in Afghanistan for a day longer than necessary”.

Rhetoric over Afghanistan has changed in recent days. Sir David last week said Britain was engaged in a “war”. Mr Cameron followed that up by referring to “a war of necessity, not a war of choice”. The previous government had referred to it as a conflict.

Mr Cameron will today tell MPs that he will not set an “artificial timetable” for troops to return from Afghanistan.

But he will make clear that Britain is fully committed to an American-led process that will reassess the Afghan mission later this year and start a reduction in troop numbers from July 2011.

Britain has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan. A total of 295 British soldiers have died there since they entered in 2001.

Ministers are braced for fresh public unease over the Afghan mission when the British death toll passes 300 in the coming weeks.

That grim milestone may put new pressure on the coalition, since the Liberal Democrats have been strong critics of the mission.

Mr Cameron has admitted that public support for the conflict will drain away if there is not “real progress” within the next 12 months.

To help prepare the ground for any eventual withdrawal, Mr Cameron has ordered new information to be supplied to voters about the progress being made in Afghanistan.

Regular statements to Parliament and other public announcements about conditions will be used to promote the idea that the mission is succeeding, creating the conditions for troop reductions.

President Barack Obama has ordered a “surge” in US troop numbers this year. But he assured American voters he would start bringing soldiers home next year.

He has told Gen Stanley McChrystal, the US commander in Afghanistan, to work to a timetable of reducing troop numbers as early as 2011. Nato allies including Canada are also committed to withdrawal in 2011. Mr Cameron will today insist that all Afghan decisions will be based on national security.

He will also make clear that the coalition is looking to reduce troop levels in line with the Americans.

A senior Government source said: “Over the next 12 months, we have to show people the progress we are making and then start looking at how many people we have [in Afghanistan] and the jobs they are doing.”

British military chiefs have suggested that some UK forces will be required in Afghanistan for at least five years.

But overall British numbers could fall sharply. The role of the remaining forces could also change, from front-line combat operations to mentoring and supporting Afghan security forces.

Sir Richard Dannatt, the former Army chief now advising the Tories, yesterday spoke of an “exit strategy”. He said: “The future of the country must be in Afghan hands.”

Mr Cameron last week visited Afghanistan as part of his review of the British mission.

He has also consulted critics of the existing strategy, including Lord Ashdown, the former Lib Dem leader.

Winding down the mission could also relieve the pressure on the defence budget. Dr Fox said the number of Britain’s front-line military personnel could be cut as ministers try to reduce the deficit.